Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
