Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
